Is manifestation real, or just a placebo effect?

Honest answer: a lot of it is probably attention + motivation + reps, not the universe rearranging itself. That's still useful — it just isn't magic.

Placebo isn't "nothing." If writing my intention makes me act on it, I'll take the effect and skip the metaphysics.

It stopped working the moment I expected it to do the work for me. As a nudge to show up daily, it's solid.